Arizona Unemployment Rate Projection

ArizonaVintage 2026-09-24SARIMAX(2,1,1)(1,0,1,12)Driver: national unemployment rate

4.9%

Latest actual (2026-08-01)

5.12%

Baseline, +12 mo

6.3%

Adverse, +12 mo

4.73%

Favorable, +12 mo

ActualBaseline forecastAdverse scenarioFavorable scenarioShaded: 80% / 95% confidence

Model-ready projection data

History + forecast + scenarios + confidence bands, as a dated CSV you can drop straight into a regression or model. Subscriber access.

Scenarios

Horizon	Baseline	Adverse	Favorable
+6 months	5.12%	5.7%	4.92%
+12 months	5.12%	6.3%	4.73%
+18 months	5.13%	6.31%	4.74%

baseline: National national unemployment rate follows its own SARIMAX forecast.
adverse: National national unemployment rate rises +1.5 pp over 12 months (labor-market deterioration).
favorable: National national unemployment rate moves -0.5 pp over 12 months (labor-market improvement).

Track record

Pseudo out-of-sample, expanding window, conditional on realized national unemployment.

Horizon	RMSE (pp)	MAE (pp)	Tests
1 months	0.128	0.108	24
3 months	0.189	0.155	24
6 months	0.315	0.246	24
12 months	0.451	0.375	24

Methodology

Arizona unemployment is modeled with a SARIMAX specification (2,1,1)(1,0,1,12), using the national unemployment rateas an exogenous driver. The national path is itself forecast and fed in; scenarios shift that driver to represent a labor-market deterioration or improvement. Confidence bands are the model's. Every vintage is dated and reproducible from FRED source series (AZUR, UNRATE). This is a modeled projection, not a guarantee; the track record above states how far off it has been out of sample.