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Methodology & Research Brief · v1.0.0

Seven dimensions. Seventeen indicators. Every choice written down.

What the index measures, how it is built and validated, what it does not say, and how to become a founding research partner.

ERI Methodology & Research BriefAug 27, 2026United StatesPublished

The weights

Program reliance and recovery dynamics carry the most weight.

Dimension weights, set by the authors and disclosed. Users who prefer different weights can recompute from the published results table.

  1. 1Program reliance20
  2. 2Recovery dynamics20
  3. 3Economic diversification15
  4. 4Employment15
  5. 5Income & poverty15
  6. 6Human capital8
  7. 7Housing8
Percent of the composite. Weights sum to 100.

Inputs

Public data only, cited to the variable.

17

indicators, each with its source variable ID

3

federal sources: Census ACS, BLS LAUS, BEA

3,222

counties scored on one method

Normalization and grades

Percentiles, then fixed cut points.

Each indicator becomes a national percentile rank (0–100); dimensions average their indicators; the composite is the weighted mean.

A ≥ 80

grade cut point

B ≥ 65

grade cut point

C ≥ 45

grade cut point

D ≥ 30

grade cut point

Validation and sensitivity

Tested out of time, and against its own weights.

84%

of grades hold under ±25% weight perturbation

2020–22

out-of-time validation window (COVID)

3,080

counties in the empirical weight check

How this is calculated, and what it does not say

Limitations stated in the brief: one validation shock; county-government-only fiscal data; ACS margins of error in small counties; cross-sectional associations in the cascade model overstate short-run causal effects.

Founding research partners are invited to validate and refine the methodology. Sponsors support the research; they do not influence the methodology or the findings.

Dig deeper

Data in this edition

See the report's methodology section.

Sources carry different vintages and lags by design and are never combined inside one figure. The write-up's caveats section says what the index does and does not claim.

Cite as

Alt-30 (2026). ERI Methodology & Research Brief, v1.0.0 (v1.0.0). Alt-30. https://portal.alt-30.com/reports/eri-methodology

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