Research libraryEconomic resilience

Economic Resiliency Index · v1.0.0

3,222 counties, one method, graded A to F.

535 counties grade A or B on their capacity to weather a downturn; 1,232 grade D or F. The index predicted which counties' economies shrank least in 2020 — and which rebounded most.

Economic Resiliency Index — National ReportAug 27, 2026United States · 3,222 countiesPublished

Read the full reportCounty results (CSV)260 KBState results (CSV)3 KBCounty workbook (XLSX)899 KB

The national picture

Most counties sit in the middle. The tails are where policy lives.

Grades at fixed cut points on a 0–100 composite of seven dimensions and seventeen indicators.

38

counties graded A

497

counties graded B

1,455

counties graded C

957

counties graded D

275

counties graded F

The state view

Utah leads. West Virginia trails.

States scored with the same method, ranked among the 50 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico. A national overview, not the county grade.

  1. 1Utah84A
  2. 2Nebraska76B
  3. 3Colorado74B
  4. 4New Hampshire71B
  5. 5Virginia70B
  6. 6South Dakota70B
  7. 7Wyoming69B
  8. 8Minnesota67B
  9. 9Maryland65C
  10. 10North Dakota64C
  11. 11Kansas64C
  12. 12Washington63C
  13. 13Montana63C
  14. 14Idaho62C
  15. 15Texas61C
  16. 16Iowa59C
  17. 17Georgia58C
  18. 18Wisconsin58C
  19. 19Alaska56C
  20. 20Missouri56C
  21. 21New Jersey55C
  22. 22Arizona53C
  23. 23Vermont53C
  24. 24North Carolina50C
  25. 25California50C
  26. 26Maine50C
  27. 27South Carolina48C
  28. 28Florida47C
  29. 29Tennessee46C
  30. 30Delaware46C
  31. 31Indiana46C
  32. 32Illinois45C
  33. 33Massachusetts45C
  34. 34Connecticut45C
  35. 35District of Columbia45D
  36. 36Hawaii45D
  37. 37Oklahoma45D
  38. 38Oregon43D
  39. 39Alabama42D
  40. 40Pennsylvania41D
  41. 41Puerto Rico40D
  42. 42Arkansas38D
  43. 43Ohio37D
  44. 44Nevada36D
  45. 45Rhode Island35D
  46. 46Kentucky34D
  47. 47New Mexico33D
  48. 48Michigan32D
  49. 49Louisiana32D
  50. 50New York30D
  51. 51Mississippi29F
  52. 52West Virginia27F
State scores are percentile-based within the 52-unit set and are not comparable to county scores.

Does it predict anything?

More resilient counties lost less GDP in 2020.

Counties grouped into quintiles by 2019 structural resilience (six dimensions, no recovery data). Real GDP change, 2019→2020, by quintile.

  • -2.1
    Quintile 1 (least resilient)
  • -1.76
    Quintile 2
  • -1.84
    Quintile 3
  • -0.31
    Quintile 4
  • -0.54
    Quintile 5 (most resilient)
Mean percent change in real GDP by quintile. BEA CAGDP9; ACS 2019 5-year structural frame. The two most resilient quintiles lost roughly a quarter as much as the least resilient.

And the rebound

They also rebounded faster in 2021.

Real GDP change, 2020→2021, by the same quintiles.

  • Quintile 1 (least resilient)
    +4.64
  • Quintile 2
    +5.99
  • Quintile 3
    +6.02
  • Quintile 4
    +5.83
  • Quintile 5 (most resilient)
    +7.46
The COVID unemployment spike was NOT predicted (r ≈ −0.02): an atypical sectoral shock hit affluent service metros hardest. Reported as a limitation, not hidden.

How sure are the grades?

84% of grades hold when the weights move.

2,000 Monte Carlo draws perturbing every dimension weight by ±25%.

2,709

Robust — grade holds in ≥90% of draws

279

Borderline (70–90%)

234

Volatile — sits on a grade cut point

The extremes

Top and bottom of the table.

Composite score, 0–100

Highest

  • Elbert County, Colorado

    89 · A

  • Hanson County, South Dakota

    88 · A

  • Powhatan County, Virginia

    87 · A

Lowest

  • Perry County, Alabama

    12 · F

  • Mingo County, West Virginia

    12 · F

  • Holmes County, Mississippi

    12 · F

Small counties dominate both tails; read them with their population and the grade-confidence column.
How this is calculated, and what it does not say›

Seventeen indicators from Census ACS 2022 5-year, BLS LAUS 2005–2024 and BEA CAGDP9 2001–2024, each oriented so higher is more resilient, percentile-normalized across all counties, averaged within dimension and weighted: economic diversification 15%, employment 15%, income & poverty 15%, program reliance 20%, recovery dynamics 20%, human capital 7.5%, housing 7.5%.

The validation is out-of-time on a single shock (COVID). It cannot establish that the index predicts a conventional recession; no pre-2008 ACS exists to test one.

A modeled, national index. Kept separate from Alt-30's audited Arizona municipal figures; it blends vintages by design.

Dig deeper

County atlas

Every county on a map, recolor by dimension

Scenario & cascade tools

Move a lever, watch the grade move

Methodology & research brief

How it is built, validated and limited

Choosing the weights

The empirical check on our judgment

Full workspace

Scorecards, peer benchmarking, fiscal health, validation

Data in this edition

  • Census ACS 2022 5-year estimates
  • BLS LAUS 2005–2024; BEA CAGDP9 2001–2024

Sources carry different vintages and lags by design and are never combined inside one figure. The write-up's caveats section says what the index does and does not claim.

Cite as

Alt-30 (2026). Economic Resiliency Index — National Report, 2026 (v1.0.0). Alt-30. https://portal.alt-30.com/reports/eri-national-report

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