Three-year projections

Unused levy capacity keeps widening.

Arizona's levy ceiling rises faster than most towns raise their levy, so the space between them grows on its own — the most reliably projectable figure in a municipal budget.

$399,002

uncollected this year, reported

$1,313,555

forgone across the next three years on the current path

$457,990

the annual gap by the third year

Dashed years are projected. R² 0.993 on the levy and 0.995 on the ceiling.

Method, and what this does not mean›

Ordinary least squares on 5 reported years with Student-t 95% prediction intervals, capped at three years. A projection is withheld entirely unless R² ≥ 0.85 and the interval sits within ±25%.

Forgone capacity is not permanently lost in Arizona: the ceiling grows from the previous year's maximum allowable levy, not from what was actually charged. What is gone is each year's revenue.